| | MONTHLY NEWSLETTER JULY 2007 HAVE A GREAT Summer VACATION! from Bill Duffey   RE/MAX Excalibur 480- 585- 2904 Hope you are having a great summer. Happy Independence Day! Thanks for the referrals! I really appreciate serving your friends and relatives. We are still in a "Buyer's Market" and it will continue for some time, in my opinion. Days-on-market are still very high, but so are the prices. We now have a 6+ month supply of homes on the market, a far cry from the 1-2 month supply we have had in the past. New listings are finally going down (a bit), but sales are also down (relative to the same time, last year). See Charts. Essentially, we are in a normal historical market cycle. Prices may decrease a bit in the Valley, but North Scottsdale area values should continue to hold up, to their historically higher values. We are the least affected by these dramatic trends and eventually demand should force prices up, sometime within the next 6-18 months. There will clearly be some deterioration in prices, during this timeframe. Not good news for Sellers, but great news for Buyers, of course. There are some small signs of improvement over the past three weeks, however. The market test will be this Fall and Winter, of course! It is time to tell your friends to BUY in the North Scottsdale area. You may recall that the same market conditions were present in 2004, just before homes shot up in value! These market forces can change very fast! Your friends don't want to miss these "value" prices. Prices will go up, dramatically, in the next 3-5 years, in my opinion. Remember, with all the commercial developments in the area North of the 101, well, demand for housing is sure to follow. On the commercial side of the equation - frankly, it is off the scale. Commercial has been on fire in the Valley for the past several years. This trend will continue! As you know, I am also a commercial agent. I only handle purchases and sales, however. Have had numerous requests for rentals, but always turn them down, unless they are for very large spaces for extended periods of time. The bottom line is that all those "interest only" loan folks and "want-to-be" investors are still dumping properties. It will take an extended amount of time for the inventory to adjust. The "financial engineering" involved with our current mortgage market is discussed below. If you have some time, view the video link, below. When it does finally adjust - look out! Prices will likely head higher! Good news for the long term! ************************************** MORTGAGE NEWS ******************* If you really want to know what is going on with the mortgage and residential market, watch this interview with Gretchen Morgenson. She is a Pulitzer Prize winner and she knows what she is talking about. Mortgages are now really a matter of "financial engineering". (about 15 minutes). Click here to watch>> http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/06292007/profile3.html <<click here With U.S. mortgages entering foreclosure at a record pace, the crisis has far reaching implications, from the financial markets to the financial health of ordinary Americans. For the latest, Bill Moyers interviews assistant business and financial editor at THE NEW YORK TIMES Gretchen Morgenson, who has been covering the story. Gretchen Morgenson is assistant business and financial editor and a columnist at the NEW YORK TIMES. She has covered the world financial markets for the Times since May 1998 and won the Pulitzer Prize in 2002 for her "trenchant and incisive" coverage of Wall Street. Clearly, one of the best explanations of our current mortgage market. Air date: June 29, 2007 PBS ***************************************
Daily Real Estate News | July 2, 2007
Fed Leaves Key Interest Rate Untouched
Federal Reserve policymakers voted unanimously last week to leave the key short-term interest rate at 5.25 percent, which is the highest in 6 ½ years, but unchanged since June 2006.
In the post-meeting statement, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said the economy is expected to continue to grow at a moderate pace during the rest of the year. He suggested that growth isn’t strong enough to warrant a rate increase to slow it.
"Some market participants may have been holding out for a signal that (the Fed) will cut rates, and they didn't get that," says chief economist Scott Brown of Raymond James & Associates. He says he expects the Fed to leave rates unchanged for the rest of 2007, but isn't sure where rates will be headed after that. "The next move is as likely to be higher as it is to be lower."
This short-term interest rate drives mortgage and other sorts of consumer loan rates.
Source: USA Today, Barbara Hagen Baugh (06/29/2007)
|
|
**************************************** Valley home sales market hasn't yet hit bottomCatherine Reagor
The Arizona Republic
Jun. 29, 2007 11:02 AM The housing market hasn't hit bottom yet, despite predictions of a possible mid-year rebound.
New figures show home building permits in metropolitan Phoenix fell last month to their lowest level since January. So far this year, single-family permits are 22 percent behind 2006's pace.
This is 36 percent lower than the frenzied market peak of 2005. Last year, forecasts called for metro Phoenix's housing market to start rebounding in early 2007. When that didn't happen, the hope was for a comeback mid-year. Now real estate analysts are looking at 2008 for a pick up in housing.
"The Valley's housing market is still looking for the bottom," said RL Brown, publisher of the Phoenix Housing Market Letter. "It all hinges on the oversupply of homes now, not only new spec homes but resales that aren't selling as consumers stand on the sidelines."
Brown is revising his 2007 housing forecast downward. In January, he estimated home-building permits would hit 41,000 this year. But for the first five months of 2007, the permit tally stands at 17,172. *************************************
Daily Real Estate News | June 21, 2007
3 Reasons to Be Happy About Housing Market
The worst of the housing bust may be behind us, some economists say. Here are three reasons for their somewhat optimistic look on housing.
1. Fewer houses built mean fewer houses waiting to be sold.
In May, the number of new housing units completed fell to 1.534 million from 1.542 million in April and 1.61 in March. "The numbers [of starts] are at a low enough level that the inventories can start to be worked down," says National Association of Home Builders Chief Economist David Seiders.
2. Mortgage rates are going up, but the economy is strong enough that people can afford the increase. "The economy appears able to absorb these subtractions, especially since they remain on track to be smaller than what the market grew accustomed to over the past year," says Action Economics Chief Economist Mike Englund in a June 19 note.
3. There’s no improvement yet, but the decline has slowed.
"I don't think we're out of the woods here, but we may not be that far from the bottom. Since late last year things have been trending downward but not nearly as rapidly now as during 2006," says Seiders.
Source: BusinessWeek Online, Maya Roney (06/20/07)
|
|
Mortgage rates will continue to fluctuate, all year, in my opinion. The general trend will be up, however. **************************************** ************************************** Sales of existing homes drop to slowest pace in 4 yearsAssociated Press
Jun. 25, 2007 07:08 AM WASHINGTON - Reflecting further housing troubles, sales of existing homes fell in May to the lowest level in four years while the median home price dropped for a record 10th consecutive month.
The National Association of Realtors reported Monday that sales of existing single-family homes and condominiums dropped by 0.3 percent to 5.99 million units in May, the slowest sales pace since June of 2003.
The median price of a home sold last month dropped to $223,700, down 2.1 percent from a year ago. It marked the 10th straight price decline compared with a year ago, the longest stretch of weakness on record. ******Here is a hot deal for you! **NEW PRICE - City Water Approved***** These are great parcels and should have one more in the Carefree area this fall! 
******************************* LISTING DATA ****************** 
*********************************  SALES DATA
************************************ Local millionaires' on the riseRuss Wiles
The Arizona Republic
Jul. 1, 2007 12:00 AM How much are you worth?
As it turns out, global economic growth and stock-market rallies have been good for many Valley residents: A new report by financial giant Merrill Lynch has found that there are now more than 53,000 households in the Valley with a net worth of at least $1 million.
That's a 7.4 percent increase over the previous year and is in line with an even larger 8.3 percent up-tick in millionaire households worldwide. ******************************** Daily Real Estate News | June 19, 2007 What's the Most Expensive City in the World?
Moscow is the most expensive city in the world, according to this year's annual Mercer Human Resource Consulting survey. London comes in second place, up from third last year.
Overall, Asian cities dominated the top 10 of pricey cities. On the other hand, Asuncion, the capital of Paraguay, is the least expensive city for the fifth year in a row.
Mercer surveyed the cost of living in 143 cities, comparing the cost of more than 200 household items.
Strong currencies dropped New York City to 15th place and Los Angeles to 42nd. No Canadian or Latin American cities were in the top 50.
Top 15 Most Expensive Cities in the World- Moscow, Russia
- London, United kingdom
- Seoul, South Korea
- Tokyo, Japan
- Hong Kong, Hong Kong
- Copenhagen, Denmark
- Geneva, Switzerland
- Osaka, Japan
- Zurich, Switzerland
- Oslo, Norway
- Milan, Italy
- St. Petersburg, Russia
- Paris, France
- Singapore, Singapore
- New York City, U.S.
— REALTOR® Magazine Online
|
|
****************************************** Housing market may be worse than stats revealRachel Beck
Associated Press
Jul. 3, 2007 10:02 AM NEW YORK - Here's a scary thought about the housing market: Things may be far worse than what's already being revealed by the troubling government and industry statistics.
At issue is what goes into sales price data and what does not. When those numbers are crunched, many of the incentives that sellers are using to lure buyers - including cash rebates - aren't being included. That suggests prices may be falling faster in many markets than is now being reported.
The same goes for how the mortgage-application indexes don't account for the implosion of lenders. That could have the effect of masking a slowdown in demand, which is why the housing market could be in for rough sailing much longer than most anyone anticipates. ******************************************** YOUR CREDIT RATING Anyone who has ever had a bank account, a mortgage, a credit card, a car loan, an account with a retail store etc. will almost definitely have a credit rating.
Most information in your credit rating comes from companies you have credit with, such as the banks, department stores, finance companies, etc. as well as from certain public records such as lawsuits, tax liens, judgments and bankruptcies.
If you have been denied credit, insurance, a job, or rental dwelling opportunity because of information contained in your credit report, you are entitled to a complimentary copy of your report within 60 days. If after checking you believe the information to be incorrect you may file a brief statement explaining why. Inaccurate information on your credit may be removed, but no one can have accurate, current or verifiable information removed from his/her record.
Credit reports are usually divided into five sections:
1) Your credit history
2) By whom your history has been reviewed
3) By Information you have given to the credit information company
4) Specific Identification information on you
5) Explanatory notes and comments
Different States have different conditions, and it is important that you check with your circumstances especially in California, Colorado, Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts and Washington.
Two leading Consumer Credit Companies are:
Experian 800-422-4279
Equifax 800-685-1111 As of December 2004, you can get a free copy of your credit report. You can request a free credit report on the Web at www.annualcreditreport.com . This is a site set up by the credit reporting companies pursuant to Federal Law. There's also a toll-free phone number (1-877-322-8228), as well as a mailing address. I recommend that you do not use any other site, as they are just trying to charge you for something you can get for free, once a year! ***************************************************************************** Attorney General Warns of Phone Scam Targeting Seniors Attorney General Terry Goddard today warned consumers of a phone solicitation scam offering Arizona seniors an identification card that is supposedly being sent to all U.S. senior citizens. The Attorney General’s Office has learned that seniors are receiving calls from someone offering the phony ID card. The caller then offers a “medical card” that requires the person’s name and bank account number and sometimes pressures the senior to provide this information. This is a scam! These phone calls are fraudulent and are an attempt to gather personal information that could be used to steal personal identifying information and personal financial information. Goddard offered the following tips: Be wary of callers who insist on gathering personal information. If you are being pressured, hang up. Do not give out personal information, such as your Social Security number, bank account numbers or credit card numbers, to anyone you do not know. Report any suspicious calls to the Attorney General’s Office at 602-542-5763.
If you believe you have been a victim of fraud, please contact the Attorney General’s Office in Phoenix at 602.542.5763; in Tucson at 520.628.6504; or outside the Phoenix and Tucson metro areas at 1.800.352.8431. To file a complaint in person, the Attorney General’s Office has 32 satellite offices throughout Arizona with volunteers a vailable to help. Locations and hours are posted on the Attorney General’s Web site at www.azag.gov. |
|
************************************** Do you have a shop-vacuum? They help clean up spills, drain a hot tub, or vacuum the cars. Oh, and they work in the shop, too. Have you looked inside your ShopVac lately? The filter inside is probably made of paper. How can that filter hold up with all the different tasks that it must perform in its lifetime? The answer is, you need a helping hand to extend the life of your shop vacuum. Chances are you have the solution in your wastebasket. Would you believe that cutting off the legs of an old pair of panty hose provides a perfect 'pre-filter?' Just tie the ends in knots, and slide the waistband portion over the top of the filter. The suction of the vacuum won't be reduced, and you can clean your new 'filter' anytime, just by rinsing it out! ***************************************************** Don't you wish there were such a simple solution for every job around the house? Well, when it's time to deal with buying or selling real estate, I promise to make it as easy as possible. You can call me anytime you need me! Regards, William Duffey GO TO MY CONCIERGE PAGE FOR A LIST OF VENDORS. <click here Hope you enjoyed this newsletter...let me know if you have suggestions or if you would like me to write an article on any real estate subject.
Please remember that selling or buying your home is not a "do-it-yourself" project. Call me, and I'll handle all the details. I also have a "Moving Coach"! The service is free for my clients. *Please consult your tax adviser. Please note: This email and any attachments contain confidential and/or privileged information for the sole use of the intended recipient. If you are not the intended recipient you may not read, disseminate, distribute or copy this email message or any attachments. Please notify the sender immediately (by reply email or phone) if you have received this email message by mistake and delete this email message, along with any attachments from your system. Email transmission cannot be guaranteed to be secure or error-free, as information could be intercepted, corrupted, lost, destroyed, delayed or may be incomplete. The Sender does not accept any liability for any errors, omissions or viruses in the contents of this email message or any attachment. This email also conforms with the Arizona Commercial Electronic Mailing Act of 2003. Your Privacy is important to me. I do not share your email information with any other party. If you do not wish to network in this way and desire to be removed from my newsletter email list, simply send me an email with "remove" in the subject line (click on the "email Bill" link. You will be excluded from the list, in a few days. Copyright 2007 Bill Duffey. All Rights Reserved.  To remove yourself from my mailing list, you can opt-out by just sending me an email.
Please put "remove" in the subject line. NOTE: If your home or property is currently listed for sale with a licensed Real Estate Broker, this is not intended to be a solicitation of that listing. It is not our intention to solicit the listing of another real estate Company. GO TO MY CONCIERGE PAGE FOR A LIST OF VENDORS. PS: I never receive any compensation from any vendor, ever!  
LEGAL STATEMENT <please click here to read Regards, Bill Duffey |
