Things are picking up, a bit! Welcome news! Why? Because the normal Summer “value” Buyers are starting to purchase. Listings are still up and sales are down, dramatically. We still have a 9 month inventory!

For Sellers, time-on-market is very high due to the Buyer's market, but also for 2 other reasons. As I have written, before, the MLS has changed their rules about days-on-market. It used to be that clients could switch to a different Realtor at the end of the listing contract period and the new Realtor’s listing would start at zero – not anymore. The new rule states that the days-on-market continues, no matter how many times you list. There are now two "days-on-market" calculations: The listing "agent" days and the "cumulative" days-on-market. We will all be seeing dramatically different statistics then we have, before. Time to adjust your thinking about the "real" meaning of days-on-market. It can mean many things. Perhaps the property was listed at a 2005 price point, etc. My advise is that if you like the property, negotiate for it and buy it! Properties appeal to different persons, in different ways and at different price points.

The only way a homeowner can realize zero days-on-market, is to keep their home off the market for a period of 90 days. Then all of the days-on-market calculations will start all over again on the MLS printout. Realtor's can still find out the actual days-on-market, anytime, however. Finally, the MLS has developed a program to check these statistics and Realtor’s who try to mess with the system will be fined.

This is my summer newsletter. I will return to my regular monthly editions in September.

Realistic prices are beginning to help the ailing resale market

Catherine Reagor
The Arizona Republic
May. 14, 2007 09:15 AM http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/0513homeprices0514.html

The standoff between home buyers and sellers in metropolitan Phoenix could be nearing an end.

The wide gap between what a home is listed for and what it sells for is shrinking, which means Valley home sales could start to pick up if more buyers and sellers agree on prices.

Real estate analysts say it's an early sign the ailing housing market could be on the road to recovery.

"Both buyers and sellers are readjusting their expectations," said University of Arizona economist Marshall Vest. "Buyers are coming back into the market with reasonable offers. More homeowners are pricing their homes to sell."

Vest analyzed data from the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service and found that the spread between what Valley home prices sold for in March and what they were listed for is the narrowest it has been since mid-2004. The gap hit a high in mid-2005.

Valley home listings recently hit a new high of 50,000. But housing-market watchers say many of the listings are sellers who put their home on the market last year based on price run-ups from a few years ago. Those houses are languishing on the market with little chance of selling for the listed prices.

Housing slowdown still causing major problems

Experts: Sluggish rebound to boost prices, hurt jobs

Arizona's lagging housing market likely won't recover until next year and will continue to hinder job growth until it rebounds, state economists said this week. Although houses continue to sell, inflated prices and stockpiled inventory will cramp the industry a while longer.

"Most buyers, I think, now realize that housing prices are not declining, they've simply leveled off," said Marshall Vest, director of the Economic and Business Research Center at the University of Arizona's Eller College of Management. "Houses are still selling, they've just come off of those peaks that were driven by the mania that ripped the market there for a while," added Vest, who gave his midyear economic report on Wednesday to business leaders in Tucson.

Vest's comments were underscored by Dennis Hoffman, a Valley economist who said the amount of money changing hands in real estate sales has dropped about 18 percent, to $6.9 billion, from the first quarter of 2006 to the first quarter of 2007. Hoffman is a professor of economics at the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University.

Nationwide, about 50 percent of economists agreed it will be the end of 2007 or beyond before the market recovers, according to a survey by the National Association for Business Economics Outlook.

Still, it is possible Arizona could take longer because its prices were so over-inflated, Vest said.

Sales of existing homes have stabilized, and 10 months' worth of housing inventory is stocked up, Vest said. Normally, inventory is about four to five months' worth. Sellers are cutting prices to move homes, but that process needs to continue a while longer before the market can rebuild, Vest said. "We'll clearly see a recovery, but it's not going to go as quickly or surely as high as it did," he added.

The slowdown in the housing industry, Vest and Hoffman agreed, will continue to create a drag on Arizona's employment and retail numbers. While non-farm employment grew by about 108,000 jobs in metro Phoenix in 2006, Vest projects it will grow only by 66,000 in 2007. His prediction for 2008 also is grim: just 36,500 jobs being added.

In recent years, the construction industry created about 25 percent of new jobs in the Valley, Vest said. Removing that major source of growth has had a ripple effect on everyone from real estate agents to mortgage bankers to inspection crews, he said.

Hoffman said the loss didn't have as much of a negative impact as expected. He said that people still view Arizona as an attractive place to live and to open businesses, which will help the economy in the long run. "The challenge," Hoffman said, is to figure out how this downturn in residential real estate "will affect the rest of the Arizona economy and how long-lived those effects will be."

Vest said retail sales also slumped, showing essentially no growth since last year. "The slowdown in sales has to do certainly with high debt levels," Vest said. "We've been using our houses as an ATM machine, extracting large amounts of cash to support our spending. "That door is closing."

Wages, which are increasing about 4 percent, and small gains in job growth still can drive consumer spending, Vest said. The difference is that spending will have to track current income more closely instead of relying on external sources of wealth, he said.

On a national scale, about 40 percent of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics Outlook say they believe a 25 percent to 33 percent chance exists that the United States will go into a recession within the next year.

Although a recession would further strain Arizona's economy, the losses probably wouldn't be severe, Vest said. "If a recession does develop, most people think it will be short and mild," he said, "and it will be followed by a strong rebound."

Desert Ridge parcel sold for record $28 million, apartments planned

Audrie Garrison
The Arizona Republic
May. 31, 2007 11:39 AM

A 26-acre Desert Ridge parcel of land sold at a record price Thursday morning will likely be the site for high-end apartments.

Westfield/Greystone Master Partnership, LLC won the Arizona State Land Department auction with a $28 million bid. That price translates into $1.063 million per acre, the highest price per acre in the history of the land department.

Arts ranking puts Scottsdale at No. 4

Art-savvy Scottsdale is once again ranked among the best art destinations in the nation, waltzing in at No. 4 for the second year in a row among mid-size cities, according to AmericanStyle magazine.

Scottsdale was ranked behind No. 3 Las Vegas, No.2 Albuquerque and No.1 Pittsburgh, which grabbed the top spot for the first time.

For Californians, Phoenix area is hot housing market

…"Living in Santa Barbara, you get used to nothing being under a million dollars, and a million-dollar house is really small," Campos said. "Here, I could build my dream house for less than $300,000. At some point, you weigh the beach versus a realistic life someplace."

These days, that "someplace" is likely to be Maricopa County. For the first time since Nevada became a magnet for Californians in the 1990s, the Phoenix area has nudged Las Vegas aside as the No. 1 destination for people fleeing the Golden State and its soaring home prices.

In fact, the Arizona-bound are actually at the head of a long parade of bargain hunters marching out of expensive urban California and settling ever eastward -- Riverside and San Bernardino, Calif.; Buckeye, Glendale, Phoenix.

Tax returns for 2005, the most recent data available, show that a net 11,375 households -- representing nearly 29,000 people -- moved from California to Maricopa County in 2004. At the same time, a net 10,657 households with about 23,000 members moved from California to Clark County, Nev.

"Housing isn't cheap in Vegas anymore, nor is it in Phoenix, compared to what it was. But it's still cheap compared to California," said R.L. Brown, publisher of the Phoenix Housing Market Letter. "We're averaging 9,000 Californians a month changing their (drivers) licenses to Arizona. To me that's a phenomenal number."

Top 10 millionaire counties – Maricopa County is # 4 in the nation.

Where the Millionaires Live
The number of U.S. millionaire households has risen to a record high of 9.3 million as of mid-2006, up 5 percent from 2005, according to TNS Global’s annual Affluent Market Research Program.

The millionaires’ mean net worth, not including their primary residence, is $2,167,167 with investable assets of $1,442,841. Their median age is 58 and 45 percent are retired.

Forty-six percent of millionaire households own investment real estate such as a second home, third home, rental properties, and undeveloped land. Thirty-four percent have a first mortgage on these residences and 25 percent have second mortgages on these additional residences.

The TNS study identified 10 counties with the highest number of millionaire residents.

Source: Associated Press (05/01/07)

TNS Financial Services, a market research and polling firm, ranks the nation's top 10 counties with the highest number of millionaire households, which have a net worth of at least $1 million, not including the value of a resident's home.

No. 4 Nationally Maricopa County, Arizona Number of millionaire households: 113,414

Percentage of state's millionaire households: 62% Percentage of nation's millionaire households: 1%

Ritz project details unveiled

Aerial view of the 123 acres of land acquired by Five Star Development on the Scottsdale and Paradise Valley border that will be master planned as the world's first $1.5 billion Ritz-Carlton Community and mixed-use project of its kind.

Five Star to build resort, homes, shops on Paradise Valley/Scottsdale site

Diana Balazs
The Arizona Republic
May. 30, 2007 12:00 AM

A Scottsdale-based real estate development company Tuesday confirmed its purchase of the 123-acre Ritz-Carlton Paradise Valley property from an affiliate of Marriott International. Five Star Development is touting the project as the first Ritz-Carlton mixed-use development of its kind. The project, which will feature residential and retail property, is expected to cost $1.5 billion

Founded in 1978 in Texas by real estate developer Jerry Ayoub, the company focuses on real estate development, construction and property management. Its corporate headquarters is in Scottsdale, and there is a branch office in El Paso. Five Star Development purchased the property, which is northwest of Lincoln Drive and Scottsdale Road, last week for $89.5 million, public records show.

Marriott International bought the prime vacant parcel in 2005 from the Sinclair Oil Corp. for $74 million. Marriott had been shopping for a local master developer for the resort/residential project. Five Star Development will own and build the project, while Marriott, through its Ritz-Carlton Hotel Co. LLC, will operate the hotel and residential community under long-term management agreements.
Marriott International currently is seeking zoning approval from Paradise Valley.

The Ritz-Carlton site includes 105 acres in Paradise Valley and 18 acres in Scottsdale. The Paradise Valley portion will include a 225-room resort hotel and single-family residences. The Scottsdale portion will be developed with condos and resort retail.

Rachel Pearson, corporate communications manager for the Scottsdale Convention & Visitors Bureau, said the Ritz-Carlton will be a great addition to the area's collection of world-class resorts. And the resort is following the trend of other resort properties by incorporating residential as part of the mix, she added. "Hotels are not just hotel rooms anymore. There are hotel rooms, but they also contain residential components," Pearson said.

Paradise Valley Town Manager Tom Martinsen said the team representing the project before the town will remain in place but with new members from Five Star Development added. Ayoub, Five Star Development's president and chief executive officer, said that from town officials' and the public's point of view, nothing will change. "The names, faces and design of the project will remain the same," Ayoub said. The company has been involved in a number of hotel-development projects, but a project of this kind has never been done before, he said. Martinsen said that as far as the town goes, the project will have a major impact.

In the short term, that includes managing and overseeing its construction and making certain that all the town's codes and special-use permits are followed. "In the long term, it will have a major impact in terms of adding people and business to the town and adding revenues to the town," Martinsen said.

Extreme Makeover Left Family in the Red
When Jesus and Michelle Jacobo won ABC television’s “Extreme Makeover: Home Edition,” it seemed like their troubles would be over.

But in reality, winning such a valuable prize gave them a new source of anxiety — the Internal Revenue Service. The Jacobos’ property taxes will double and they owe taxes on the value of their increased home equity and furnishings. Plus, they still owe $121,000 on their old mortgage.

Kevin Green, a Kansas City home builder who coordinated the local volunteers who worked on the project, has raised $50,000 to pay the Jacobo’s bills, but he is still $71,000 short in bringing the family current with the IRS and their mortgage company.

Jesus Jacobo, 39, builds cranes and Michelle Jacobo, 38, cares for their four children and five nieces and nephews of whom they have gained custody or have adopted. A grandparent also lives with them. Their old home had 912 square feet while their new one has 5,338.

Source: The Kansas City Star, Bill Graham (04/09/07

New Rules for Buying a Home Before It's Built
As the housing market has cooled, the developer’s mindset has changed. Rather than construct new developments quickly and wait for the buyers to flood in, more developers are relying on preconstruction sales to determine whether or not to break ground.

Here’s some advice for any buyer contemplating a preconstruction purchase:

Home prices down 2.2 percent in metropolitan Phoenix

Metropolitan Phoenix home prices have dipped 2.2 percent in the past year, compared to a 1.8 percent drop nationally.

The Valley isn't alone that decline. The National Association of Realtors new figures how 62 metro areas across the country saw home prices fall between the first quarters of 2006 and 2007.

Realtors Senior Economist Lawrence Yun said the housing market could start to recover in the second half of this year.

…..Two years ago, the Valley led the nation with a 50 percent jump in home prices. Other parts of the country that also led the nation in home gains like Sarasota are seeing big price drops now.

Desert Ridge development barely starting

By one measure, the Desert Ridge area of northeast Phoenix is almost finished.

More than 90 percent of the available land has been sold to developers, much of it at record-breaking prices.

But in some ways, the master-planned community has barely gotten started, even though the first land transactions in the area took place 14 years ago.

Consider: Less than 20 percent of the expected housing in the area has been built, despite it being in private hands.

So what's behind the delay?

Officials say there are many factors.

Certainly, money is part of the equation. The land prices, which topped last week's sale of 269 acres west of Desert Ridge Marketplace for almost $150 million, are just part of the cost. But the ongoing housing slump and a lack of infrastructure add to the delay, as well.

"It all should be solid from Phoenix to Scottsdale sooner than you think," said David Richert, senior executive assistant to the city manager.

Last week's land sale leaves just three parcels remaining in the area.

• One parcel contains a little more than 25 acres, zoned for high-density residential. It is scheduled for auction at the end of May and has an appraised value of $20.5 million.

• Another parcel wraps around the northern and eastern sides of the Wildfire Golf Club courses. That parcel has 200 acres and is zoned residential. A sale isn't scheduled.

• Also not scheduled for sale is a 265-acre parcel at Pinnacle Peak Road and 56th Street that is zoned for residential. Neither of the larger parcels has had a price put on it yet.

Those parcels make up the last 9 percent of developable land in the area. The master plan calls for up to 18,000 homes and 50,000 residents, and it could take 10 years to complete.

The buyer, Rightpath Limited, said it expects to complete its development of 3,700 homes, most of them condos, townhouses and apartments, in three to five years.

Other large developments in Desert Ridge appear to be on that kind of schedule. CityNorth, being developed by the Thomas J. Klutznick Co., was announced in January 2005. Only now has work started. The project, assuming it stays on schedule, will be finished by late 2009.

Large parcels farther east, owned by Meritage Homes, Pulte Homes and Toll Brothers Builders, are in the works, but no soil has been turned yet.

David Richert, senior executive assistant to the Phoenix city manager, said a large waterline being built from Cave Creek Road east into Desert Ridge will play a big part in the timing of those developments. It could take four years to finish, he said.

But not everyone is happy about what lies ahead.

Nick Meris, a homeowner in the area, said he is starting to feel the pinch of more people.

"We moved here 10 years ago. What a great move it was, getting out of the hubbub of the city. We were happy when the stores finally came. Now, we are wondering if we need to move on again."

Fix It or Replace It?
The May 2007 issue of Consumer Reports offers consumers a timeline to determine when it’s time to say goodbye to old appliances that aren’t operating properly. The magazine took into account age, typical repair and replacement costs, and improvements that have been made in newer models.

The following list shows the age when it’s more sensible to replace an appliance rather than fix it:

(Phoenix, Ariz. – May 8, 2007) Attorney General Terry Goddard today warned consumers about a door-to-door magazine sales scam that is targeting cities throughout Arizona.

Residents of at least five Valley cities and Prescott have been visited by young people who identified themselves as students from the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication at Arizona State University. The “students” told residents they were selling magazine subscriptions to earn money for a summer trip to London. Residents were asked to write checks payable to Integrity TGM. Several “students” said they lived in the neighborhood or nearby the homes they visited.

This is a scam. The Cronkite School does not solicit donations door-to-door and is not associated with this magazine sales effort. The school has recently received an increased number of complaints and inquiries about these door-to-door sales.

For more information from the Cronkite School, please contact Associate Dean Frederic Leigh at 480-965-5011 or frederic.leigh@asu.edu.

If you believe you have been a victim of fraud, please contact the Attorney General’s Office in Phoenix at 602.542.5763; in Tucson at 520.628.6504; or outside the Phoenix and Tucson metro areas at 1.800.352.8431. To file a complaint in person, the Attorney General’s Office h as 31 satellite offices throughout Arizona with volunteers available to help. Locations and hours are posted on the Attorney General’s Web site at www.azag.gov.

Please visit the Attorney General’s Web site to sign up for scam alerts and weekly messages from Attorney General Goddard.

Sales of existing Valley homes remain sluggish

Sales of existing homes in Maricopa Co. remained sluggish in April when compared to the past few boom years, according to new resale numbers released Wednesday.

Still, it appears the market is following a traditional cycle, although "we may not like it," said Jay Butler, director of Realty Studies at Arizona State University's Polytechnic campus.

Recorded sales for the month fell to 4,855 compared to 5,385 in March.

While April sales were a bit stronger than in January and February, they were well below the 5,980 sales in April 2006 and 8,735 sales in April 2005.

"While the resale market is tracking near historical norms, the levels should be well below those of the last few years, because the current market lacks the market frenzy to own and/or invest at almost any price and reasoning," Butler said.

So far this year, 19,045 homes in Maricopa Co. have sold compared to 23,960 for the same period in 2006 and 36,060 sales in 2005.

The median home price in April was $265,000 versus $265,470 in March and $264,900 in 2006.

I'll be alert for your call, anytime you need me, too. I can help you with information about your home's value, or any other real estate matter.

Hope you enjoyed this newsletter...let me know if you have suggestions or if you would like me to write an article on any real estate subject.

Please remember that selling or buying your home is not a "do-it-yourself" project.

Call me, and I'll handle all the details. I also have a "Moving Coach"! The service is Free for my clients.

Please note: This email and any attachments contain confidential and/or privileged information for the sole use of the intended recipient. If you are not the intended recipient you may not read, disseminate, distribute or copy this email message or any attachments. Please notify the sender immediately (by reply email or phone) if you have received this email message by mistake and delete this email message, along with any attachments from your system. Email transmission cannot be guaranteed to be secure or error-free, as information could be intercepted, corrupted, lost, destroyed, delayed or may be incomplete. The Sender does not accept any liability for any errors, omissions or viruses in the contents of this email message or any attachment. This email also conforms with the Arizona Commercial Electronic Mailing Act of 2003. Your Privacy is important to me. I do not share your email information with any other party. If you do not wish to network in this way and desire to be removed from my newsletter email list, simply send me an email with "remove" in the subject line (click on the "email Bill" link. You will be excluded from the list, in a few days. Copyright 2007 Bill Duffey. All Rights Reserved.

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NOTE: If your home or property is currently listed for sale with a licensed Real Estate Broker, this is not intended to be a solicitation of that listing. It is not our intention to solicit the listing of another real estate Company.

Scottsdale AZ Real Estate | Bill Duffey | REMAX | Carefree, Cave Creek, Paradise Valley and North Phoenix - Homes, Land and Commercial Properties

RE/MAX Excalibur REALTOR®Bill Duffey, Scottsdale AZ 480-585-2904

Realistic prices are beginning to help the ailing resale market

Housing slowdown still causing major problems

Experts: Sluggish rebound to boost prices, hurt jobs

Desert Ridge parcel sold for record $28 million, apartments planned

Arts ranking puts Scottsdale at No. 4

For Californians, Phoenix area is hot housing market

Top 10 millionaire counties – Maricopa County is # 4 in the nation.

Source: Associated Press (05/01/07)

Ritz project details unveiled

Five Star to build resort, homes, shops on Paradise Valley/Scottsdale site

Home prices down 2.2 percent in metropolitan Phoenix

Desert Ridge development barely starting

Sales of existing Valley homes remain sluggish

Send e- mail to wmduffey @ yahoo.com - questions or comments. >>> <<< Click on this icon to send e-mail)
Copyright © 1998-2008 All Rights Reserved by Bill Duffey - Luxury Real Estate in Scottsdale, Carefree, Paradise Valley and Cave Creek, Arizona

Click here, if you get lost on this site -- click here >>> http://www.billduffey.com <<< Click here

Scottsdale AZ Real Estate | Bill Duffey | REMAX | Carefree, Cave Creek, Paradise Valley and North Phoenix - Homes, Land and Commercial Properties

RE/MAX Excalibur REALTOR®Bill Duffey, Scottsdale AZ 480-585-2904

Realistic prices are beginning to help the ailing resale market

Housing slowdown still causing major problems

Experts: Sluggish rebound to boost prices, hurt jobs

Desert Ridge parcel sold for record $28 million, apartments planned

Arts ranking puts Scottsdale at No. 4

For Californians, Phoenix area is hot housing market

Top 10 millionaire counties – Maricopa County is # 4 in the nation.

Source: Associated Press (05/01/07)

Ritz project details unveiled

Five Star to build resort, homes, shops on Paradise Valley/Scottsdale site

Home prices down 2.2 percent in metropolitan Phoenix

Desert Ridge development barely starting

Sales of existing Valley homes remain sluggish

Send e- mail to wmduffey @ yahoo.com - questions or comments. >>> <<< Click on this icon to send e-mail) Copyright © 1998-2008 All Rights Reserved by Bill Duffey - Luxury Real Estate in Scottsdale, Carefree, Paradise Valley and Cave Creek, Arizona

Click here, if you get lost on this site -- click here >>> http://www.billduffey.com <<< Click here

Send e- mail to wmduffey @ yahoo.com - questions or comments. >>> <<< Click on this icon to send e-mail)
Copyright © 1998-2008 All Rights Reserved by Bill Duffey - Luxury Real Estate in Scottsdale, Carefree, Paradise Valley and Cave Creek, Arizona